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Visibility forecast model based on LightGBM algorithm
YU Dongchang, ZHAO Wenfang, NIE Kai, ZHANG Ge
Journal of Computer Applications    2021, 41 (4): 1035-1041.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2020081589
Abstract699)      PDF (1107KB)(734)       Save
In order to improve the accuracy of visibility forecast, especially the accuracy of low-visibility forecast, an ensemble learning model based on random forest and LightGBM for visibility forecast was proposed. Firstly, based on the meteorological forecast data of the numerical modeling system, combined with meteorological observation data and PM 2.5 concentration observation data, the random forest method was used to construct the feature vectors. Secondly, for the missing data with different time spans, three missing value processing methods were designed to replace the missing values, and then the data sample set with good continuity for training and testing was created. Finally, a visibility forecast model based on LightGBM was established, and its parameters were optimized by using the network search method. The proposed model was compared to Support Vector Machine(SVM), Multiple Linear Regression(MLR) and Artificial Neural Network(ANN) on performance. Experimental results show that for different levels of visibility, the proposed visibility forecast model based on LightGBM algorithm obtains the highest Threat Score(TS); when the visibility is less than 2 km, the average correlation coefficient between the visibility values of observation stations predicted by the model and the observation values of visibility of observation stations is 0.75, the average mean square error between them is 6.49. It can be seen that the forecast model based on LightGBM can effectively improve the accuracy of visibility forecast.
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